In the absence of their regular Saturday entertainment, the summer months sees football fans turn to their second favourite hobby, dwelling on what could have been. Whilst players relax in far off lands thinking about anything other than football, our countries' pubs and living rooms play host to speculation, hypotheticals and ultimately asking... what if?
What if the star player had not picked up that injury?... What if that signing had gone through...? What if we'd scored that penalty...? It's these questions that keep football fans coming back for more, it's all a part of the soap opera of sport to wonder what could've happened if things had been different.
For supporters of Hull City, a fifteenth placed finish in the table has left them far from the bottomless pit of relegation but out of reach of the playoff positions. Ultimately for many fans, the taste of disappointment will be left to linger over the summer break as the Tigers prepare for another year of second tier football.
Whilst we will never truly know how Hull may have fared with a full campaign under the guidance of Liam Rosenior or without any key players getting injured, we can predict what might have happened. That said, all this is purely hypothetical as obviously the outcomes would almost certainly be different in real life. This is not what I think would happen but just a bit of wild speculation.
A Full Season Without Injuries
Given their performances when on the pitch, a full forty six games of Oscar Estupinan and Benjamin Tetteh would've surely seen Hull's fortunes change on the attacking front. Failing to score in seventeen games this season, the constant injuries along the forward line have been a thorn in the side of Hull City with none of their attackers starting more than thirty games and the majority appearing in less than half of all fixtures.
The six Hull attackers who have been at the club all season (Oscar Estupinan, Benjamin Tetteh, Allahyar Sayyadmanesh, Adama Traore, Ryan Longman and Dimitris Pelkas) have combined for 21 goals with 13 of those coming from top scorer Estupinan. However, with these six attackers missing an average of 22 games this season, it is clear that Hull's place in the table may have looked different had their full attacking arsenal been available throughout the campaign.
By looking at the goals per game ratios of these players, it can be estimated that Hull lost out on a potential 14 goals due to injury. For a side that drew seven games 0-0 during this season, having extra attackers available per matchday could've seen Hull turn a few draws into wins and climb up the table.
Player | Goals | Games | Goals Per Game | Goals per 46 games | Goals Gained |
B. Tetteh | 1 | 15 | 0.07 | 3 | +2 |
A. Traore | 1 | 12 | 0.08 | 4 | +3 |
A.Sayadmanesh | 2 | 19 | 0.1 | 5 | +3 |
R. Longman | 2 | 37 | 0.05 | 2 | +0 |
D. Pelkas | 2 | 26 | 0.07 | 4 | +2 |
O. Estupinan | 13 | 35 | 0.37 | 17 | +4 |
Obviously, these stats do not consdier substitute appearances but does go to show the extent to which injuries have depleted Hull's attacking firepower and led to the lack of goalmouth action for the Tigers.
A Full Season Under Arveladze
Guiding Hull to safety the season prior and now equipped with a slew of fresh faces, Shota Arveladze looked set to improve on his previous nineteenth place finish and with a win on the opening day, he certainly looked set to do so.
Whilst the season might have started with promise, the wheels quickly fell off Hull's campaign during the Arveladze-era and the Georgian was promptly sacked with Hull sitting just outside of the relegation zone.
A particularly poor run between August and September saw the Tigers concede eleven goals in four games, only scoring one in the process and acting as a sure-fire catalyst for Arveladze's eventual sacking. It goes without saying that Hull's record under Arveladze translated across an entire forty-six game season makes for tough reading for even the most optimistic of fans.
Picking up just eleven points during his eleven games this season, a world in which Shota stayed would've seen Hull end the season on forty-six points, an embarrassing 21st place finish and only avoiding the drop on account of Reading's six point deduction.
Even worse would be the defensive record for the Tigers with the 23 goals conceded during Arveladze's reign equalling out to just over two per game leaving Hull with a total of 96 conceded at the end of the season. This figure would be the highest for any Hull side since 1955/56 and the third worst in their history.
Clearly Hull owner, Acun Ilicali, made the right decision to sack Arveladze and avoid the certain embarrassment that would've come from a full season of 'Shota-ball' in East Yorkshire.
A Full Season Under Rosenior
Steadying the ship following the unmitigated disaster that was Arveladze, there is arguably no limit as to where Hull may end up under the stewardship of Rosenior. Whilst the games have not made for spectacular viewing by any stretch of the imagination, the results have been enough to turn around what began as a terrible season and ensure Hull's safety in the championship.
38 points in 28 games means that over the course of a full season under Rosenior, Hull would've found themselves eleventh in the table, a mere six points away from the playoff places. Whilst still not the success fans hoped for, a finish above recently relegated sides, Watford and Norwich, is certainly nothing to be upset with and is in stark contrast to the relegation threatened team under his predecessor.
Whilst a team managed by Arveladze looks for a place in the history books for all the wrong reasons, the 21 clean sheets a Rosenior led side would accumulate over a full season would be their highest ever tally for a Hull City second division season and the third highest across all leagues. Additionally, the defensive success under Rosenior would've seen Hull concede just 41 goals, fewer than in the promotion winning 12/13 season.
The defensive figures are clearly an impressive feat however, a stat Liam Rosenior may not be as proud of is the record number of draws he would've accumulated over a full season. The estimated 23 draws accrued across a full campaign shows just how much wins were somewhat at a premium under Rosenior despite the upwards trajectory.
Hull Managers Across a Full 46 Game Season
Manager | Points | Clean Sheets | Goals Scored | Goals Against | League Position |
Liam Rosenior | 63 | 21 | 49 | 41 | 11th |
Shota Arveladze | 46 | 0 | 46 | 96 | 21st |
Overall, this season has been turbulent to say the least. It was one that started with relegation as a genuine threat but soon retreated into mid-table stability thanks to Rosenior. There were glimpses of something more, but any chance of a promotion push was quickly simmered down by a lack of cutting edge, often put down to the ever-present injury crisis.
While it is interesting to ponder as to what could have been, the important thing for Hull City and Rosenior is to look forward to the next season and ensure that the right recruitment prevents some of the pit falls the Tigers have suffered during this season.
With a strong summer window and a full pre-season to truly stamp Rosenior's identity on the club, a shot at promotion will no longer be the subject of hypotheticals but the reality at Hull City.
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